How teacher recruitment targets work
In short
Each year the DfE estimates how many people need to start teacher training so that enough qualified teachers are available the following year. This estimate – the postgraduate trainee need, often called the recruitment target – is set for each subject.The target is produced by the DfE’s Teacher Workforce Model, a national “stocks and flows” model. It uses pupil-number forecasts, projected demand for each subject, expected leavers and retirements, and other supply routes (such as returners), then adjusts for recent recruitment. Recruitment is then reported as a percentage of that target.
Read it carefully: hitting a target one year doesn’t mean a subject is “solved”, and missing it doesn’t translate directly into that many vacancies – demand also depends on returners, changing pupil numbers and how many hours existing teachers work.