Every exam season, ‘predicted grade boundaries’ circulate online. Here’s why they can’t be known in advance - and how to use past boundaries sensibly.
Not reliably. Grade boundaries aren’t set until after students have sat the papers and marking is complete or nearly complete, because they depend on how difficult that year’s exam turned out to be. Past boundaries are useful context, but Ofqual explicitly warns that you shouldn’t rely on previous boundaries to predict this year’s.
The boundary depends on the difficulty of a paper that hasn’t been marked yet. Comparable outcomes helps keep the grade standard consistent; it doesn’t fix the mark needed - so even with a similar cohort, the marks needed can move as the paper’s difficulty changes. That’s why no one, including the boards, knows the boundaries until marking is complete or nearly complete.
Unofficial ‘predicted grade boundaries’ shared before results should be treated with real caution - they’re guesses, not the boards’ figures.
Because they depend on this year’s paper difficulty, which isn’t known until the exam has been sat and marked. Source: Ofqual ↗
As rough context only. They can help you understand the range, but they aren’t a prediction. Source: Ofqual ↗
No - boundaries are set after the exams are sat and marking is complete or nearly complete. Source: Ofqual ↗
Use previous grade boundaries as context - explore four years for any subject and board.
Explore previous boundaries →Open a subject page →Last checked August 2026. This is a plain-English summary of official guidance; always check the linked Ofqual, JCQ and exam-board pages for the definitive rules, which can change.
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